The Russia-Ukraine Result Case Study

 Russia-Ukraine War

Hello, friends!

The Russia-Ukraine war that's been going on for months

is seeing a new twist.

Look at this map.

This map shows the departing international flights leaving Russia on 21st September.

Each of the seats on each of these flights was completely sold out.

The prices of these flights have risen exponentially.

And has become unaffordable for most Russians.

The cheapest flight here was the one from Moscow to Dubai,

for 300,000 Rubles, it is around ₹400,000.

It is 5 times the monthly salary of an average Russian.

Apart from this, do you know what was

the #1 search term on Google in Russia?

How to break your arm at home.

People are looking up ways they can break their arms.

Do you know why this is happening friends?

Because recently, Russian President Putin,

declared Partial Mobilization in his country.

This means that the average Russians

who does not want to participate in this war?

are forced into going to the frontlines and asked to fight.

This is why people are so desperate to leave the country.

Any flight, at any cost, to anywhere.

They just need to leave the country.

There are traffic jams on the Russian borders.

"Russians are mobilising on the streets of Moscow,

chanting, "Send Putin to the trenches."

Hundreds of demonstrators have been detained for saying Nyet.

Other Russians are fleeing the country.

Flights from Moscow to all visa-free destinations selling out quickly.

There are also long lines of cars heading to Finland,

which has open borders."

And those who do not have the means to escape

are thinking of breaking their hands, their bones,

so that they could use a medical reason to avoid being listed.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin just escalated his invasion of Ukraine.

I think it is necessary to support the decision

of the partially mobilised citizens of the Russian Federation."

"A partial military mobilisation.

"Putin says Moscow would respond without a delay,

if Russia's territorial integrity is threatened."

Look at this tweet on Twitter by a Russian guy on 12th September.

"Time to counter the counter-attack of the counter attack."

"They are the Russian elite, born to compete,

never retreat."

"Living or dead, always ahead,

fed by your dead."

This guy had enthusiastically tweeted in support of the Russian army.

But around 20th September

the same account tweeted this.

"Special military operation my ***."

"They want to send us to war while they have fun in their yachts,

and send their kids to school in the west."

"Ok, that's it, now I fully support Ukraine,"

"****Russia."

"Guess what? I just received a convocation for mobilisation."

"No ****ing way I'll join.

They are clearly losing if they think that I'm their last hope."

It shows that as long as the war is only on the TV,

and people are watching the war from the comfort of their homes,

it is quite fun.

To cheer for their country, their team.

But when the war knocks of their doors,

and their lives are in danger,

people realise the true meaning of the war only then.

For many Russians, this war was

something that was happening in Ukraine.

There weren't many consequences in their lives.

The economy did suffer a little,

some American companies exited the country,

But their daily lives were continuing

for the average Russian.

But now that the war has taken a turn where

even the average Russians are being pushed into the war,

they are now realising the consequences of a war.

Several months ago when Russia invaded Ukraine,

they were hoping to march into Ukraine with their large army

to the Ukrainian capital Kyiv,

and would overthrow the Ukrainian government.

It is said that Putin had hoped that the Russian army

would capture the entire country of Ukraine within 3 days.

The plan was that the Russian army would act so stealthily,

that the Ukrainians wouldn't have the chance to defend themselves.

That they would finish it while other countries debate whether or not to help.

But this plan failed miserably.

Putin and the Russian army grossly underestimated the capabilities of the Ukrainian army.

The extent they are willing to go to protect their country.

For their independence.

As the war continued to extend,

more countries came forward in support of Ukraine.

In the first month of the war, there was a point

when the Russian army was very close to Kyiv.

Look at this map, it shows

the Ukrainian areas occupied by the Russian Army at their peak.

But about a month after the invasion,

Russia had to pull back from Kyiv,

and they changed their goal.

They said that their goal was the liberation of the Donbas region.

This region lies in Eastern Ukraine.

Since then, a situation of a stale mate was maintained.

The area occupied by Russia, more or less, remained the same.

The area protected by Ukraine, remained the same.

But in the last few weeks,

Ukraine has turned this war around.

Steadily, the Ukrainian army liberated more areas under Russian occupation.

And returned it to their country Ukraine.

The situation now looks somewhat like this.

If you look at the map,

The red area is under Russian occupation,

And the Yellow area is completely under Ukrainian control.

Only some areas in the East and South are still under Russian occupation.

About 80% of Ukraine is safe from Russian invasion now.

But it is interesting to note that

of the area still under Russian occupation

one-third of it was under Russian occupation since 2014.

You will need to understand the context a bit.

The southern peninsula in Ukraine is called Crimea.

Before 2014, it used to be a part of Ukraine.

But in 2014, Russia occupied this

and a controversial referendum was held.

According to Russia, the outcome of it was that

a majority of people living there, wanted to make it a part of Russia.

In 2014, Russian backed separatists declared a war on Ukraine.

There are two proxy countries of Russia in the region.

Donetsk People's Republic,

and Luhansk People's Republic.

Although there are very few countries to recognise these countries

But after 2014, practically, these two countries existed.

Technically speaking, even since 2014,

these areas were already under Russian occupation.

But then, on February 24th of this year

the Russian army launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

And tried to establish their control over the entire country.

And as I told you, Ukraine has successfully fought back now.

But you would wonder one thing,

how can a country like Ukraine, face a country like Russia.?

How did the momentum go in favour of Ukraine?

One of the biggest reasons here are the high-tech gears supplied from America.

One of the most useful weapons for Ukraine has been

this American-made rocket launcher system.

This is known as are HIMARS.

This rocket launched system is highly advanced,

they are extremely precious.

one that can destroy the facilities in a a wide range.

These rockets have been given to Ukraine are

part of giving Joe Biden's $10 billion Military Aid plan.

The plan is quite simple.

Ukraine used this rocket launcher system 

to attack the Russian railways, infrastructure, and logistics. 

Russians mostly use trucks to bring their supplies to the frontlines.

When these trucks are offloaded,

Ukraine used the rockets to destroy the trucks,

Without approaching them.

Ukraine has so many high-tech, advanced weapons that

Ukrainian aircraft are hitting military targets in Crimea as well.

"By contrast, Boractor must fly close to the target,

to release its bombs. 

This boost in range would allow the Ukrainian drone operators,

to contact stand off attacks.

On 1st August, they attacked an airbase, and the headquarters of the Russian bad sea fleet,

This is why, in this conflict,

Russia is forced to use more soldiers.

They have to force the average person to join the war.

Well, not Russia, It is all simply Putin.

But this begs the question, does this mean that Ukraine will win this war?

To understand this, we need to understand

what does it mean to win such conflicts?

This is Lt. Amir Khan Niazi,

under his supervision, about 93,000 Pakistani soldiers

surrendered to the Indian and Bangladeshi army

after which Bangladesh became Independent.

Usually, this is how wars end.

When one army surrenders to the other army.

The same happened when the German army surrendered in World War II

and the Southern Confederation has surrendered

in the American Civil War.

But when a war doesn't end,

how can we see which side is winning and which is losing?

In such a situation, some people suggest that we should see which army wins territories,

and which army loses their territories.

As we saw in the fighting in the Donbas region,

Evaluating this war on this measure won't tell us

which army is winning the war.

As per experts, in such a situation,

we should run 3 tests to see which army is winning.

The first test is to see which army has the initiative in the war.

In layman terms,  this means that the army which decides the course of the war

while the other army just reacts to it.

The agenda is set by which army?

In this war, we witnessed Russia attacking Ukraine,

Showing that Russia was the one to set the agenda.

Because Ukraine wasn't prepared to counter this attack.

That's why their army had to react to the Russian attack.

But the situation has changed in the last 2 months.

Because Russia doesn't have a surprise factor now.

And since America and European countries are helping Ukraine,

Ukraine has been able to set the agenda as well.

Apart from attacking military targets in Crimea,

"Ukraine's military says that 9 Russian military planes

were just destroyed in the airbase in Crimea."

Ukraine's artillery attacks have caused much damage to the supply chain of the Russian army.

Ukraine has a chance to start their counterattack.

They can target the Russian supply chain

and win back their territory.

Ukraine launched counterattacks against Russian troops

taking back several villages and towns over the weekend.

As per recent news reports,

the chances of such counterattacks are the highest in southern Ukraine.

But it is difficult to predict where in southern Ukraine.

This was the first test, Who has the Initiative?

The second test is to see which army is winning the War of Attrition?

War of Attrition simply means that wars aren't won in a few days.

An army wins the war over several months

by tiring the other army.

The first to get exhausted and lose their willpower,

will lose the war as well.

This is known as the War of Attrition.

These images are from the Battle of Verdun.

It is a famous battle from World War I, 

fought between France and Germany.

In 1916, this battle lasted for 303 days,

it continued until there were no soldiers, horses, or food in the German forces.

This is a famous example of War of Attrition.

A similar war is being fought in the Donbas region.

Both Ukraine and Russia are engaging in artillery attacks against each other,

so that their enemy is exhausted.

Even if the Russian Defence Minister has claimed

that only 5,937 Russian soldiers have died in this war,

According to the US military,

in reality, 70,000-80,000 Russian troops have been killed.

You might think that US is inflating the numbers since it is opposing Russia.

But several independent agencies have also stated

that the number of Russian troops killed in this war is far higher that what is claimed by Russia.

People have estimated that 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed.

You might say that since the Russian army is bigger than the Ukrainian army,

even if more Russian soldiers are killed,

it doesn't mean that Russia is losing the war of attrition.

The number of soldiers being killed in the war is just one factor.

The second factor is the willpower of the soldiers.

Many experts believe that the willpower among Ukrainian soldiers is higher,

because they are fighting to protect their country.

Whereas, we have seen the news footage

of Russian men fleeing the country to escape being drafted into the army.

It is expected that the willpower of the employees at Stars Bucks is better than Russian army's.

This was the second factor.

War of Attrition.

In this test, both countries are close

but experts believe that Ukraine is winning this.

The third test is to see which army has more capacity to fight the war.

The soldiers of both armies are being killed.

Their supplies are running out.

But which army can last longer?

It is a bit difficult to evaluate this,

Becuase we don't have enough evidence from Russia or Ukraine.

First, let's just talk about the soldiers.

There's clear evidence that Russia has more soldiers than Ukraine.

This is why Vladimir Putin could induct 300,000 men into the Russian army.

And it is said that Russia hasn't deployed all its soldiers to this war.

The second thing is the equipment.

It is a bit difficult to compute this,

because we know that Ukraine doesn't have its own equipment.

The equipment is coming in from other countries.

But how long will these countries send equipment to Ukraine?

It would decide which country has more capacity.

For this test, you can either say that Russia is winning,

or that both countries are well matched.

But what do these three tests mean?

You can say that Ukraine is ahead of Russia in 1 or 2 tests.

Does that mean that Ukraine will win this war?

It depends on whether Ukraine can successfully carry out the counterattacks.

Look at this map again.

Ukraine has 2 options if they want to attack.

The first option is to get Kherson back under their control.

It is the only provincial capital under Russian army's control.

By taking back Kherson, the willpower among Ukrainian soldiers will increase substantially.

And it will signal to the western countries

that their support is proving helpful.

And so they shouldn't stop their support.

The second, and perhaps the more dangerous option is that

the Ukrainian forces try to push southwards

In this plan, the Ukrainian forces would try to damage Russia's supply line

connecting Crimea and Donbas regions.

With this, Russia's control over this region would destabilise.

If Ukraine isn't successful in this,

.their army may be trapped by the Russians.

Apart from this, we need to remember one more thing about this war,

it is relatively easier to defend in military operations to attacking.

Till now, Ukraine has been mostly defending.

Will it be able to counterattack?

In this entire situation, one thing is clear,

neither of these armies would get total victory.

Security expert Emma Ashword claimed that,

Most likely, this war will end through negotiations.

The country that'll set the agenda in the war

will be able to set the agenda during the negotiation as well.

Some people are worried that if Russia starts to lose this war,

Vladimir Putin may use nuclear weapons.

In his recent speech, he had threatened that he wouldn't hesitate to use nuclear weapons.

But if most experts are to be believed, this is a mere threat.

They reason that Vladimir Putin knows the consequences of using a nuclear weapon.

And he may think about using nuclear weapons, only when he would run out of other options.

Experts claimed that since Vladimir Putin has called up 300,000 soldiers for this war,

it shows that using nuclear weapons is only a threat.

Because he still has several other options.

He can call up other soldiers,

he can use other equipment,

he can stop selling natural gas to European countries,

And if he gets too desperate, he can target Ukraine's energy supply and civilian infrastructure.

That's why the chances of having a nuclear war, is next to zero.

But it doesn't mean that Vladimir Putin is not under pressure now.=ss.ss

their army may be trapped by the Russians.

Apart from this, we need to remember one more thing about this war,

it is relatively easier to defend in military operations than attacking.

Till now, Ukraine has been mostly defending.

Will it be able to counterattack?

In this entire situation, one thing is clear,

neither of these armies would get total victory.

Security expert Emma Ashword claimed that,

Most likely, this war will end through negotiations.

The country that'll set the agenda in the war

will be able to set the agenda during the negotiation as well.

Some people are worried that if Russia starts to lose this war,

Vladimir Putin may use nuclear weapons.

In his recent speech, he had threatened

that he wouldn't hesitate to use nuclear weapons.

But if most experts are to be believed,

this is a mere threat.

They reason that Vladimir Putin knows

the consequences of using a nuclear weapon.

And he may think about using nuclear weapons,

only when he would run out of other options.

Experts claimed that since Vladimir Putin has called up 300,000 soldiers for this war,

it shows that using nuclear weapons is only a threat.

Because he still has several other options.

He can call up other soldiers,

he can use other equipment,

he can stop selling natural gas to European countries,

And if he gets too desperate,

he can target Ukraine's energy supply and civilian infrastructure.

That's why the chances of having a nuclear war,

is next to zero.

But it doesn't mean that Vladimir Putin is not under pressure now.

Friends, this is Anatoly Geraschenko,

he was the former head of Moscow Aviation Institute

One of the top engineering institutes in Russia.

I am saying 'was' because he passed away.

When Vladimir Putin was giving his speech,

declaring partial mobilisation,

the news broke that Geraschenko was murdered.

He fell from the high University walls.

It is ruled as an accident.

That he fell down from a high place, by chance.

Doesn't this death sound very mysterious?

Do you know the interesting bit?

There have been many such mysterious deaths in Russia recently.

Of famous Russians.

One 1st September, there was a similar death

of the Oligarch Ravil Maganov.

He was the chairman of Russia's second-largest oil producer company,

LUK oil.

He fell down from the 6th floor window of the hospital.

There's no information about why he was in the hospital

or how he fell down.

But one thing is for certain, Maganov was among the rare oligarchs,

who were criticising Putin, for this invasion.

He called this conflict a tragedy.

Experts claim that the Russian government

and Putin are directly involved in the deaths.

The influential people who tried to raise their voices against Putin,

were suddenly, and mysteriously, dead.

As evidence, these experts site the speech given on 16th March

when Putin declared that any pro-western or anti-war Russian spotted

would be labelled traitor and scum.

It meant that anyone criticising Putin's decision,

would be labelled a traitor.

And that such traitors would be hunted and dragged out of Russia.

If you look at Putin's history,

it is full of such incidents.

Ever since Putin has been in power in Russia,

about 107 journalists and dozens of political opponents

have been killed under Putin's reign.

It is a convenient coincidence that anyone criticising the Russian President

or disagreeing with him,

gets killed out of nowhere.

But it will be interesting to see

the way this war is being prolonged,

Russia needing to mobilise citizens,

this is simply infuriating the Russian civilians.

The number of people disagreeing with Putin in Russia keeps on growing.

According to the reports, several pro-Putin people have changed their opinions.

And they have started to ask questions.

So there is a high possibility that if Ukraine defeats Russia,

Putin will be blamed for it.

And the public opinion may go completely against Putin.

If the political opposition can carve its way,

this can be the end for Putin.

Anyway, the conclusion of this video is that

Russia's initial invasion attempt on Ukraine

has flopped terribly.

Ukraine has defended its sovereignty.

And has secured the country to quite an extent.

The Eastern and Southern regions where the war is still raging,

it's possible that it will be dragged on for a long time.

Because both sides are hoping

that the other side will get exhausted and accept defeat.

But meanwhile, heavy civilian and military casualties are being reported.

More than 100 million people have been displaced.

It's hoped that the conflict would soon end.

Thank you very much!

Credit- Dhruv Rathee